Description:
WP1 combines quantitative and qualitative evidence from studies of GVC upgrading in other countries with survey and interview evidence from Vietnam to analyze current human capital demand and to forecast expected upgrading trajectories.
The quantitative work will be based on a framework inspired by temporal development patterns in Product Space analysis which illustrate the development of country-level export patterns over time. We will add to extant Product Space analysis in two dimensions.
WP1 will generate forecasts for upgrading at the sector level, which will be translated into projections of skill and human capital demand. In addition to skill requirements based on pure technology needs, we will also consider skill requirements in areas like entrepreneurship, organization, and management, which are important for new firms to enter GVCs. For example, regulatory compliance and CSR currently make up a notable obstacle for Vietnamese GVC participation.
Further data will be generated in WP1 through a survey‐like data collection instrument, in which therespondent is not a person with personal opinion but a company representative. This survey will collect information on training activities in enterprises (types, needs, and obstacles), skills considered important for current as well as future operations, and training expenditures. The information will be used to develop benchmarking indicators for assessing the industry‘s own upgrading capacity and matching it with data on the TVET system in WP2, and for designing and evaluating partnership models for skill development in WP3.
Deliverables:
D1.1. Policy report: Upgrading trajectories and skill requirements of GVC firms
D1.2. Manuscript: Forecasting GVC upgrading trajectories
D1.3. Manuscript: Vietnam’s GVC participation and skill upgrading
Description:
WP2 applies a conceptual framework from Tan et al. (2012) and Inter-Agency (2014) in combination with findings from WP1 to evaluate the current capacity of Vietnam’s TVET system, given the industry’ expected skill requirements in the medium term. The conceptual framework considers key interlocking components and related policy areas, i.e. relevance, access and participation, quality, finance and governance. Particular emphasis is put on how relevant demand forecasts are currently generated in the TVET system.
The benchmarking indicators from WP1 are used to identify specific mismatches between skill requirements and TVET system capacity – these will be outputs used for developing partnership models in WP3. The conceptual framework and econometric models suggested by Desjardins and Rubenson (2011) are used to analyze the skill mismatches. Data for WP2 are collected from different sources and instruments such as a TVET-survey, secondary data from Vietnamese labor force surveys, and consultations with Danish and Estonian stakeholders. The experiences of Danish and Estonian stakeholders are especially relevant for assessing existing Vietnamese demand forecasting models – in particular, Estonian TVET providers have been under constant pressure from rapidly increasing labor costs during the past two decades.
Deliverables
D3.1. Identifying partnership models for skill development
D3.2. Cost-benefit analysis of proposed partnership models
D3.3. Policy report: Opportunities and challenges for TVET in Vietnam
Description:
The qualitative and quantitative results from WP1 and WP2 are used to design and evaluate various training models, using analytical frameworks and methods recommended by Phillips (2012). The conceptual framework for engaging the private sector in education from Baum et al. (2014) and case study research on TVET structures and partnerships in other countries are also used for designing skill development programs and formulating policy suggestions. To strengthen links to the tertiary education and to leverage existing investments in higher education, we will also explore partnerships focusing on career guidance and vocational counselling for university graduates – short vocational programs may be particularly valuable for helping theoretically and methodologically trained graduates enter the labor market.
Data from secondary sources and stakeholder interviews are used for calculating returns to investment in cost-benefit analyses and evaluating the effectiveness of designed models by using multi-criteria analysis. Various training models are developed, including those with a focus on informal program for skills provision such as firm‐based apprenticeships (usually for training in advanced skills) and training partnerships involving organized labor, firms and industry associations, training providers, and other stakeholders.
Deliverables
D3.1. Identifying partnership models for skill development
D3.2. Cost-benefit analysis of proposed partnership models
D3.3. Policy report: Opportunities and challenges for TVET in Vietnam